Just eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him for not reading a through-ball. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. After Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, now sit only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough proposition to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, while the wins have stacked up.
As per the data, twice all season has the team registered an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a team which has strung together ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – but at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on their talisman to save the day with two crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
His opener originated from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
